Diesel Jumps 3.8¢ to $3.010 a Gallon

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Mar 2, 2026Diesel and Gasoline Prices Rise on Iran Strikes - TT+36.4%
• Mar 2, 2026European diesel jumps over $100/mt amid Middle East tensions | S&P Global+36.4%
• Mar 17, 2026US average diesel prices cross $5 a gallon as Middle East War tests global economy | Reuters+6.6%
• Apr 19, 2022Gulf Coast Diesel Exports Soar on Wartime Shortage - TT+5.7%
• Jan 13, 2025Diesel market jumps on fear new sanctions may hit Russian supply | Sparta+4.9%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Mar 2, 2026Diesel and Gasoline Prices Rise on Iran Strikes - TT+35.6%
• Mar 2, 2026European diesel jumps over $100/mt amid Middle East tensions | S&P Global+35.6%
• Apr 19, 2022Gulf Coast Diesel Exports Soar on Wartime Shortage - TT-8.3%
• Sep 16, 2019Truckers: Fill up your tank ASAP. Diesel could surge $.60 per gallon this week - FreightWaves+5.8%
• Jan 11, 2025US diesel prices jump to six-month highs amid NYMEX rally as Midwest differentials falter | S&P Global+1.7%