China announced 25% tariffs on U.S. soybeans and other farm products including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum, beef and tobacco, in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Soybean futures fell more than 2%, with May CBOT beans trading as low as $9.84.
China typically turns to South America for soybeans at this time of year.
Retaliatory tariffs on U.S. grain and oilseed exports to China reduce U.S. export demand, pressuring soybean, corn and sorghum prices, while Brazilian supplies gain share.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.