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Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal is expected to reinstate sanctions that could reduce Iranian nitrogen exports. Traders are holding off on purchases while China remains largely out of the market due to rising coal costs.
Potential loss of Iranian nitrogen supply during strong Middle East demand could firm nitrogen prices, though uncertainty is currently delaying purchases.
en.boerenbusiness.nlAnne Jan DoornMay 17, 2018After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
