OPEC+ began a two-day meeting without a decision on the planned output hike, with Brent trading near $47.61 after falling 1.2%. The JMMC declined Nigeria's request to revise its baseline for output cuts.
Restarting about 1.9 million bpd of halted output could push the market into surplus and reverse recent crude gains, pressuring energy-linked costs.
After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.