Strange divergence in gold and oil could spell more gains for stocks

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Jul 27, 2017FOMC Deflates Dollar Inflates Oil And Gold - ActionForex+2.0%
• Jul 29, 2020Canadian dollar gains as investors sell greenbacks on ‘downbeat’ Fed - The Globe and Mail+1.8%
• Jun 30, 2017Canadian Dollar Exchange Rates Boosted As GDP Comes In On Forecast And Oil Boosts The CAD-1.5%
• Jun 4, 2019Oil bounces off four-month low, turns positive as stocks rally+0.1%
• Oct 27, 2021U.S. demand for oil surges, depleting tanks in Oklahoma-1.6%

After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jul 27, 2017FOMC Deflates Dollar Inflates Oil And Gold - ActionForex+3.4%
• Mar 22, 2022Steep oil and sunken yields flash more weakness for Japan's yen-4.6%
• Jun 30, 2017Canadian Dollar Exchange Rates Boosted As GDP Comes In On Forecast And Oil Boosts The CAD+2.3%
• Jun 4, 2019Oil bounces off four-month low, turns positive as stocks rally+1.7%
• May 28, 2025Oil gains on supply concerns, investors await July OPEC+ output decision+3.7%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Nov 6, 2024Trump comeback drives gains in US stocks and dollar, Treasuries slide+1.9%
• Sep 22, 2017Fed QT stocks, gold impact - MINING.COM+1.2%
• May 1, 2026Dollar gains as Iran war keeps central banks in wait-and-see mode-0.6%
• Oct 31, 2018USDJPY remains supported amid growing BoJ and Fed policy divergence-0.6%
• Mar 7, 2023Oil and Gold Prices Slump As Powell Signals Further Rate Hikes to Come - Markets Insider+0.3%