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The dollar index rose 0.21% to 98.58 as central banks stayed in wait-and-see mode due to the Iran war. Fed funds futures priced only a 28% chance of a single cut by the end of 2026, down from two cuts previously expected.
Reduced odds of Fed easing support the dollar and raise financing costs for commodity holders, which can weigh on dollar-priced feed commodity values.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.