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The FAO convened a regional emergency meeting warning that African Swine Fever, detected in China last month, is accelerating and will likely spread to other Asian countries. The virus has been found on 18 farms or abattoirs in six Chinese provinces, and there is no vaccine or cure.
China produces about half the world's pigs, so ASF losses would cut pork supply and drive up demand for feed grains and meal from importers, while also reducing domestic pig herd demand for feed. The likely spread of the disease across Asia raises the risk of further herd culls and trade restrictions.
fao.orgJul 9, 2018After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 145 past neutral disease events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 98 past neutral disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
