Latvia declared a three-month state of emergency on January 17, 2017, in three regions after an African swine fever outbreak at a farm with more than 5,000 pigs. Hundreds of pigs are expected to be culled, and the government has earmarked 100,000 euros for the response.
The disease has been found in wild boar since 2014.
Culling and regional restrictions cut pork supply in a small Baltic market and can drive export bans, which mainly affects hog and pork trade flows rather than global prices.
After 117 past bearish disease events, HOGS moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.