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The UN FAO warned that African Swine Fever has been detected in China in areas about a thousand kilometres apart, posing an imminent threat to other Asian countries. There is no effective vaccine, and Chinese authorities have culled more than 24,000 pigs across four provinces.
FAO says spread is likely driven by pig product movement rather than live pigs.
China holds about half the world's swine, so ASF spreading to other Asian markets would cut pork demand and feed grain and meal use. That points to lower feed demand and weaker prices for corn and soymeal.
news.un.orgFAO/Sue PriceAug 28, 2018After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
