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China has reported African swine fever in 28 of its 32 administrative areas since its first case in August 2018, averaging about three new provinces a month. Vietnam reported its first ASF outbreaks in February 2019 and has now affected 17 administrative areas.
Heavy pig losses in the largest hog market reduce pork supply and raise demand for substitute proteins and feed, supporting meal and grain demand while pressuring hog prices lower on disease-driven herd cuts.
cahfs.umn.eduGus BrihnMar 21, 2019After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 56 past bullish disease events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
