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ASF has now spread to all Chinese provinces after Hainan confirmed the disease, and Cambodia and a new region of South Africa also reported cases. Rabobank estimates 150 to 200 million Chinese pigs will be affected in 2019, nearly 30 percent more than annual US pork production.
Rabobank's estimate of massive Chinese pig losses implies strong sustained import demand for pork and feed ingredients, a bullish signal for hog and feed grain prices.
brownfieldagnews.comNicole HeslipApr 23, 2019After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 56 past bullish disease events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.6%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
