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African swine fever, a highly contagious viral pig disease with no approved vaccine, has caused large losses in Asia, with China estimated at USD141 billion in direct losses. The disease has now spread to 11 Asian countries, including Indonesia, and 10 European countries.
Persistent ASF spread keeps pork supply tight in Asia and sustains demand for feed ingredients as producers rebuild herds, while biosecurity costs and trade restrictions add uncertainty to hog and feed markets.
ilri.orgWane, AbdrahmaneJan 14, 2020After 177 past bullish disease events, HOGS moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 145 past neutral disease events, CORN moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 98 past neutral disease events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
