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A second African swine fever case was confirmed in China's hog herd on Aug. 16, far from the first case.
U.S. hog futures spiked limit-up that day, and the rally coincided with U.S.-China trade talk news and the wrap-up of the U.S.-Mexico talks.
ASF in China raises expectations of tighter global pork supply, and trade headlines have driven sharp swings in U.S. hog and cattle futures, which add volatility to feed-buying decisions.
wlj.netKerry Halladay, WLJ Managing EditorAug 27, 2018After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
