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CME lean hog futures slipped from a 3.5-week high on profit-taking. USDA estimates China's 2019 hog output fell by 195 million head due to African swine fever and expects another 80 million pigs to die in 2020.
The large loss of Chinese hog output cuts feed demand and pushes China to import more pork, supporting global hog prices while reducing soymeal use.
manitobacooperator.caGFM Network News, Mark WeinraubFeb 20, 2020After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
