
Chicago Mercantile Exchange feeder cattle futures hit their highest level since July after Washington said it may keep blocking Mexican cattle imports until next year. The USDA halted imports over a New World screwworm case in Mexico, and feeder cattle have risen more than 6% over two weeks.
Live cattle futures also closed stronger, while lean hogs weakened.
Losing Mexican feeder supply tightens US feeder cattle availability, which supports prices and raises the cost of cattle for feedlots and feed buyers. Continued restrictions would keep the supply squeeze in place into 2025.
After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.