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The U.S. halted imports of Mexican feeder cattle on Nov. 22 after a New World screwworm case, and feeder cattle markets surged in December.
Analysts expect resumption to take three or four months while USDA has assumed no imports for all of 2025.
The import suspension removes about 100,000 head per month from U.S. feeder supply, supporting cattle prices; once imports resume, USDA's higher beef production estimates could pressure cash and futures prices.
producer.comJerry KlassenJan 8, 2025After 122 past bullish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
