
Tight US cattle supplies persist as the US-Mexico border remains closed to cattle imports due to New World screwworm, which has moved to within 70 miles of the border. Cattle imports from Mexico through seven months were down 73% year-over-year.
Cattle on feed are down and days on feed are rising, lifting dressed weights.
Closed border and shrinking Mexican feeder imports keep feeder and live cattle supplies tight, supporting prices in the near term.
After 148 past bullish disease events, LCATTLE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 122 past bullish disease events, FCATTLE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.