
US pig slaughter fell to 433,000 head on January 12, a five-month low, as Omicron infections disrupted meat plants. USDA trimmed its 2021 and 2022 pork production estimates.
CME February hogs rebounded slightly from a one-month low, while cattle futures fell on staffing shortages.
Reduced slaughter tightens near-term pork and beef supply, supporting hog prices and weighing on cattle demand for feed. Processing disruptions are a key driver of price volatility.
After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 70 past bearish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.0%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 46 past bearish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.6%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.