
Live cattle contracts for April, June and August closed $4.50/cwt lower on Wednesday, and the wholesale beef choice cutout fell $7.98/cwt, its largest one-day loss. Dressed cattle trade was estimated at 116,000 head, down 6,000 from a week earlier.
Extension economist Bridger Feuz attributes the downward trend since February largely to COVID-19 uncertainty.
Sharp declines in cash and futures cattle prices, combined with weaker packer demand for fed cattle, signal continued bearish pressure on live cattle and feeder cattle values for feedlot and stocker margins.
After 70 past bearish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.0%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 46 past bearish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.6%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.