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Live cattle futures sold off on April 1 after HPAI was found in dairy cows in Texas and a dairy worker became the second known human case in the U.S. Traders pulled back, and the April contract fell toward $180 while the weighted average cash price had reached $188.10. The author argues that the selloff was driven by fear rather than fundamentals.
The selloff lowered cattle futures and gave packers cheaper cattle, which pressures livestock feed demand and prices. Analysts see little food-chain exposure, so prices could recover if fear fades.
wlj.netPete Crow, WLJ publisher emeritusApr 5, 2024After 70 past bearish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.0%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
