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US hog futures set contract highs in deferred months for a fourth straight day on April 18, 2019, on expectations of higher Chinese pork imports after African swine fever killed pigs in China. USDA reported China bought 23,473 tonnes of US pork in the week ended April 11, and deferred feeder cattle futures also hit contract highs.
Expected Chinese demand for pork to replace ASF-depleted domestic supply supports US hog prices and, through protein substitution, firms cattle and related markets.
country-guide.caTom PolansekApr 18, 2019After 177 past bullish disease events, HOGS moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 122 past bullish disease events, FCATTLE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 148 past bullish disease events, LCATTLE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.2%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Deferred feeder cattle futures hit contract highs on April 18 amid strong hog/China pork demand sentiment, indicating momentum and spillover buying.
