
The US dollar fell 1.04% to BRL 3.715 on 4 January, its lowest since November 2018, and dropped 4.15% over the week. The move followed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments that the Fed stands ready to shift policy if needed.
A weaker dollar and stronger real reduce the local-currency cost of US exports to Brazil and make Brazilian exports dearer, a mix that tends to be mildly supportive for US feed grains and meal pricing.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.