Soy Prices Are in a Trough After China’s Sick-Pig Slaughter

After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Mar 4, 2021Hog Disease Outbreak in China Triggers Surge in U.S. Prices - Caixin Global+0.1%
• Jan 16, 2019Trade war, sick hogs make China soy purchases hard to predict: Braun+2.4%
• Sep 27, 2019Fatter pigs, new farms to boost China soymeal demand+2.6%
• Dec 3, 2018ASF tempers bullish soybean hopes after China trade truce - Brownfield Ag News+1.7%
• Feb 26, 2021China's soymeal futures plunge on pig disease concerns+0.7%

After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.

• Jul 30, 2019Pig Stocks Are Dwindling, Pork Prices Are Rising as China Battles Swine Fever - Caixin Global-3.1%
• Jan 16, 2019Trade war, sick hogs make China soy purchases hard to predict: Braun+1.2%
• Sep 6, 2018China's vast pig market in lockdown as African swine fever spreads+3.1%
• Mar 15, 2023UPDATE 1-China's Pig Farms Battle New Surge in African Swine Fever-5.8%
• Dec 1, 2023Egg prices shoot up in South Africa-4.2%

After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.

• Oct 12, 2025Hog prices slump as China's pork glut deepens - CME | The Pig Site-9.5%
• Jul 30, 2019Pig Stocks Are Dwindling, Pork Prices Are Rising as China Battles Swine Fever - Caixin Global-2.8%
• Jan 16, 2019Trade war, sick hogs make China soy purchases hard to predict: Braun-0.2%
• Sep 6, 2018China's vast pig market in lockdown as African swine fever spreads+4.9%
• Mar 15, 2021China’s beef herd to grow, on the back of high meat prices - Beef Central+2.7%