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An analyst says worsening African swine fever in China will temper the bullish soybean reaction to the U.S.-China trade truce. China confirmed new outbreaks including a Beijing farm with nearly 10,000 pigs, and soybean futures must close above $9.06 to signal a technical recovery.
Expected shrinkage in Chinese hog production limits soymeal demand, capping soybean rallies even with the trade truce in place.
brownfieldagnews.comMark DorenkampDec 3, 2018After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
