China soybean imports show US farmers have more to fear than trade war

After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Nov 27, 2018Crop drop: China swine fever outbreak to curb its soybean imports+5.0%
• Dec 5, 2018More and more ASF cases in China - imports of US pork+0.9%
• Mar 12, 2019Swine fever hurts China soybean demand, raises doubts on trade promises+3.2%
• Jan 16, 2019Trade war, sick hogs make China soy purchases hard to predict: Braun+2.4%
• Dec 3, 2018ASF tempers bullish soybean hopes after China trade truce - Brownfield Ag News+1.7%

After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.

• Aug 8, 2019Hog Virus May Matter More for China Soy Buyers Than Trade War - Bloomberg0.0%
• Nov 27, 2018Crop drop: China swine fever outbreak to curb its soybean imports+3.0%
• Dec 5, 2018More and more ASF cases in China - imports of US pork-0.6%
• Mar 12, 2019Swine fever hurts China soybean demand, raises doubts on trade promises+4.4%
• Jan 16, 2019Trade war, sick hogs make China soy purchases hard to predict: Braun+1.2%

After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.

• Aug 8, 2019Hog Virus May Matter More for China Soy Buyers Than Trade War - Bloomberg+0.0%
• Jan 16, 2019Trade war, sick hogs make China soy purchases hard to predict: Braun-0.2%
• Feb 5, 2019ANL | Shanghai Customs Restriction for Meat imports to China-3.5%
• Mar 14, 2017Bans on poultry product imports bear watching by U.S. livestock producers-1.5%
• Sep 11, 2018African Swine Fever May Reduce China's Soybean Demand+4.5%