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The US decision to raise tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% effective May 10 has intensified US-China trade tensions. Soybean prices have hit a near decade low after the tariff announcement, and US soybean inventories are at a historic high of 24.5 million tonnes.
France's plan to phase out palm oil from biofuel tax breaks from 2020 adds further downward pressure, and African swine fever has cut China's hog herd by about 20%.
Trade tensions and a record US soybean stock overhang weigh on soy and palm complex prices, while the shrinking Chinese hog herd cuts feed demand over the longer term.
theborneopost.comeditoronJun 7, 2019After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
