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Economists expect much of the record 2018 U.S. soybean harvest to go unsold after China, the former top buyer, placed high tariffs on U.S. soybeans in July. The unsold crop will have to stay in storage, and the administration announced aid for farmers.
Record stocks building in storage due to lost Chinese export demand is bearish for soybeans and meal, and it raises the cost of carry and basis weakness for the 2018/19 marketing year.
upi.comJessie HigginsSep 24, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
