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Following the attack on Saudi facilities, OPEC's global spare capacity cushion of about 3.21 million bpd was largely cut, with Saudi Arabia holding 2.27 million bpd of that. The remaining roughly 940,000 bpd is mostly held by Kuwait and the UAE, along with some in Iraq and Angola.
Analysts said those barrels would not be enough to fill the gap.
With little spare capacity left, any further supply disruption could send crude sharply higher, raising diesel, freight and fertilizer input costs. This raises the risk premium across energy-linked feed inputs.
reuters.comSep 16, 2019After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The loss of OPEC spare capacity left little buffer against the outage, supporting higher prices.
