
China Customs data show that in September 2019 China exported 2.55 million tons of fertilizers, including 550,000 tons of urea and 700,000 tons of DAP. Year-to-date exports were 20.69 million tons, up 22%, with urea exports up 188%.
Surging Chinese urea and fertilizer exports increase global supply and keep downward pressure on international fertilizer prices.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 40 past bearish trade events, DAP moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.7% to +0.5%), and -2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.