
India's DAP stocks reached about 2.2 million tonnes at the start of September 2025, above the 2 million tonne comfort level, after August imports of 1.02 million tonnes and domestic output of 318,000 tonnes. Indian buyers secured Russian DAP at $806/t cfr, below the government's $810/t ceiling.
Ample Indian inventories and sub-ceiling purchase prices reduce import urgency and give buyers leverage, which points to softer global DAP prices.
After 40 past bearish trade events, DAP moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.7% to +0.5%), and -2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.