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China exported 22.67 million tons of fertilizer in January to September, up 31.6% year-on-year, according to customs data. Urea exports rose 241.7% in September from a year earlier, reaching 2.83 million tonnes in the first three quarters.
Strong Chinese urea exports add global supply and pressure nitrogen prices lower, though recent Chinese export curbs suggest this flow may slow.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.