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A CHC blog post uses North American Multimodel Ensemble climate predictions to forecast a higher chance of dry October-December 2020 and March-May 2021 rains in East Africa. The authors note the region already faces widespread acute food insecurity and that the projection carries a high degree of uncertainty.
Back-to-back East African droughts would increase regional food import needs, mainly for grains. The effect on global feed prices is small because the region's import volumes are modest relative to world trade.
blog.chc.ucsb.eduAuthor Juliet Way-HenthorneJun 17, 2020After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
