Skillful Very Long-Lead Forecasts Anticipate Potential Back-to-Back Below-Normal East African Rains, July Update

After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jul 27, 2023Rainfall forecasts for US Corn Belt remain tough to nail down-13.2%
• Dec 12, 2025La Niña Is Fading: What It Means for South American Crop Potential - AgWeb+1.0%
• Jul 27, 2022Soybeans rally as U.S. forecast turns hot, dry | Financial Post+3.1%
• Feb 19, 2026Forecast from the São Paulo Department of Agriculture indicates a climate transition with the rainy season extending until the end of April. - DATAGRO+0.6%
• Nov 28, 2023Global Seasonal Climate Update for July-August-September 2024+2.2%

After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Apr 22, 2026Chicago soy rises as oil prices climb, rain forecast threatens Midwest planting - Markets - Business Recorder+1.2%
• Dec 11, 2025La Niña to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely, U.S. forecasters say - AgCanada-0.3%
• Nov 14, 2024US forecaster sees 57% chance of La Nina developing between now and December | Reuters-0.5%
• Jun 13, 2024La Nina weather 65% likely to develop in July-Sept, says US forecaster | Reuters-2.1%
• Feb 10, 2026Wheat production: anticipating climate risks in France up to 2100 | INRAE+1.9%