
São Paulo's agriculture department forecasts a transition from La Niña to El Niño, with rainfall likely continuing until the end of April. It recommends planting second-crop corn between March 15 and 31, and it flags fall armyworm risk in corn fields.
Extended rains favor a timely safrinha planting window, which supports a larger second crop, while the pest risk is a minor yield concern. The El Niño transition is a longer-term factor for South American weather.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.