Why La Niña and “Western V” Climate Conditions Continue to Appear Conducive to Poor Eastern East Africa March-to-May 2021 Rains and Crop Production

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Mar 13, 2020Rainfall and other climate conditions for March - AgriFocus Africa-4.2%
• Jul 30, 2018IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | July Climate Briefing: Models Continue to Predict El Niño in Coming Months+1.3%
• Sep 4, 2026El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre+0.5%
• May 26, 2020IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | May Climate Briefing: ENSO-Neutral Conditions Dominate+1.3%
• Nov 13, 2023Ongoing El Nino forecast to bring dry conditions in Southern Africa, SE Asia, Central America and wet conditions in Eastern Africa - Agroportal-0.5%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jun 16, 2022Dry conditions in Argentina cut crop’s size | The Western Producer-2.3%
• Jul 30, 2018IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | July Climate Briefing: Models Continue to Predict El Niño in Coming Months-1.2%
• Jul 25, 2018Strategie Grains cuts EU soft wheat crop estimate to 6-year low | The Western Producer-0.6%
• Sep 4, 2026El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre+1.4%
• Feb 17, 2022Dry Conditions Continue Affecting Global Wheat Production+3.9%