
The International Grains Council forecasts 2026/27 global grain output at 2.42 billion tonnes, down 69 million tonnes (2.7%) from the record prior season, though still the second-largest harvest on record. Corn is forecast at 1.306 billion tonnes and wheat at 821 million tonnes, with world ending stocks falling 26 million tonnes to 610 million.
Lower corn and wheat output alongside record consumption and tighter ending stocks points to firmer grain prices, with trade also expected to shrink by 17 million tonnes.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.