
Oil World estimates record global oilmeal output of 349.9 million tonnes in 2017-18, up 10.8 million from 2016-17. Soybean production is forecast to rise 9.1 million tonnes to 231 million, while sunflower output is forecast about 1% lower at 19.2 million tonnes.
A record oilmeal supply with rising stocks is bearish for protein meal prices, especially soybean meal, as growing supply outpaces demand.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.