The International Grains Council cut its 2018/19 world wheat crop forecast by 5Mt to 716Mt, the first fall in six years, after dry harvests in the EU and CIS. It also cut EU, Australian and Canadian wheat, and projects world barley output at 142Mt, the lowest since 2012/13.
Lower wheat and barley output with stocks falling sharply supports feed grain prices. Corn's cheaper price should absorb some of the shortfall in feed demand.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.