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The November WASDE cut global corn stocks by 9 million tonnes, soybeans by 2.2 million tonnes and wheat by 1 million tonnes, with most reductions in the US. USDA also cut Ukrainian corn production by 8 million tonnes and EU production by 2 million tonnes, and corn and soybean prices rallied after the release.
Lower global corn and wheat stocks, especially from Ukraine and the EU, tighten export supplies and support feed grain prices. The price forecast commentary suggests the market has already priced in much of the bullish surprise.
czapp.comAlberto CarmonaNov 17, 2020After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Global corn stocks were cut by 9 Mt, including lower Ukrainian and EU output, and prices rallied after the release.
