
USDA's December WASDE raised 2020 and 2021 US milk production forecasts on growing dairy cow inventories, and cut 2021 milk price projections substantially. Annual average cheese and butter price forecasts were lowered, and higher expected soybean meal prices point to rising feed costs.
A larger milk supply and lower dairy prices weigh on producer margins, while higher soybean meal prices raise dairy ration costs for feed buyers.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.