
The USDA announced the August 2020 Class III milk price at $19.77/cwt, down $4.77 from July but $2.17 above August 2019. The August Class IV price fell $1.23 to $12.53/cwt.
The decline reduced the incentive for depooling, and PPDs are expected to turn slightly positive for September in most orders.
A sharp drop in the Class III price lowers producer income and reduces pressure on dairy herds and feed budgets. The narrower gap between Class III and Class IV reflects easing market stress.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.