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The August 2022 Class III milk price was $20.10 per cwt, down $2.42 from July, while the Class IV price was $24.81, down 98 cents. The gap between Class IV and Class III widened to $4.71, the largest since November 2020.
A wider Class IV-Class III spread gives processors more incentive to depool Class IV milk, and it signals weaker cheese-driven milk values heading into fall feed purchasing.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.