
USDA's July 12 WASDE cut its 2021 milk production forecast by 300 million pounds to 228.2 billion and raised 2022 output to 231.6 billion pounds. Price forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were lowered on high stocks and weaker demand, with 2021 Class III at $16.80 per cwt.
Higher projected milk output and lower dairy product prices point to weaker milk prices ahead, reducing dairy farmers' capacity to pay for feed.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.