
USDA's July WASDE cut its 2018 milk production estimate by 100 million pounds to 217.9 billion pounds and reduced 2018 average milk price projections by about 70 cents per cwt. The 2019 production forecast was also cut, and the agency projects Class III at $14.45 for 2018 and $15.20 for 2019.
Lower USDA milk price and production forecasts signal weaker dairy farm margins and slower herd growth, which can reduce dairy feed demand over time.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.