
USDA's April WASDE cut its 2017 U.S. milk production forecast by about 200 million pounds to 217.3 billion pounds, still up 2.3% from 2016. USDA also lowered projected prices for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk and whey, leaving 2017 Class III forecast at $16.10-$16.60/cwt.
A larger herd and ample domestic and international supplies point to weaker dairy product prices, which lowers the outlook for milk-based feed ingredient demand and dairy farm margins.
After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.