
USDA raised its 2017 US milk production forecast by 200 million pounds to 216.2 billion pounds and its 2018 forecast by 300 million pounds to 220.4 billion in the October WASDE. Expected butter and nonfat dry milk prices were lowered on large supplies, while the cheese price forecast was raised.
Higher US milk output and larger dairy supplies point to softer butter and powder prices, partly offset by firmer cheese demand. Dairy feed buyers should expect ample byproduct supply.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.