
USDA left its 2025 milk production estimate unchanged but raised its 2026 forecast by 200 million pounds to 234.3 billion, on higher output per cow. The Class III price for 2026 was cut to $16.35/cwt, while the Class IV price was raised to $14.45 on stronger nonfat dry milk prices.
A larger projected U.S. milk supply and lower Class III prices point to weaker dairy prices and softer demand for dairy-based feed ingredients.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.