
USDA's August WASDE cut its 2021 and 2022 US milk production forecasts slightly on expectations of fewer dairy cows. Price projections were also lowered for both years on larger supplies and weaker demand, with the 2021 all-milk price cut to $17.95 per cwt.
Lower production forecasts offer some support, but reduced cheese, butter and powder price forecasts point to softer milk values, which lowers feed-buyer demand for dairy-linked feed ingredients such as DDGS only marginally.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.