
USDA's January WASDE lowered its 2023 US milk production estimate by 300 million pounds and its 2024 forecast by 700 million pounds, to 228.3 billion pounds. The projected 2024 Class III milk price was cut 75 cents to $16.10 per cwt on weaker cheese prices.
A smaller milk supply forecast tempers production growth, but lower Class III price projections signal weaker dairy demand for feed ingredients and softer milk prices.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.