
The June WASDE report raised U.S. 2026 and 2027 milk production forecasts, lowered 2026 cheese, nonfat dry milk and whey prices, and raised the butter forecast. Class III was cut to $16.60 and Class IV to $19.35 per cwt, and the 2026 all-milk price was lowered 55 cents to $20.70.
Feed and dairy price forecasts were largely unchanged.
Expanding milk output and lower dairy product prices are bearish for milk prices. Stable feed price forecasts mean feed costs are not adding pressure to the dairy outlook.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.